Bayesian Compartmental Model for an Infectious Disease with Multiple Infectious States

• Activity Number: 520 - SPEED: Infectious Diseases, Spatial Modeling and Environmental Exposures, Speed 2
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, July 31, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Marie Ozanne*
• Companies: University of Iowa
• Keywords: compartmental model; Bayesian; reproductive number; leishmaniasis; SAYR; source-specific

Abstract

Stochastic compartmental models comprise a class of techniques that can be used to study infection transmission dynamics. While various models have been developed to accommodate infections with an exposed (but not infectious) class or a less infectious carrier state, they do not accommodate an infection with two different infectious groups that are potentially equally important to maintaining infection in a population. We propose a Bayesian Susceptible, Asymptomatic, sYmptomatic, Removed (SAYR) model to address this scenario. We also present an Infection Source-specific Empirically Adjusted Reproductive Number (ISEARN) to quantify contributions from each of these two infectious classes to maintaining infection in a population of interest. We apply these methods to study the transmission dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis, a disease with two infectious class reservoirs, in the Americas.