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Activity Number:
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427
- SPEED: Bayesian Methods, Part 2
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019 : 3:05 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
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Abstract #307873
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Title:
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The Use of Experimental Design and Bayesian Logistic Models in Defense Analysis: a Case Study
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Author(s):
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Keyla Pagan-Rivera*
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Companies:
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Keywords:
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Bayesian;
Experimental Design;
Defense;
Logistic Regression
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Abstract:
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The use of Bayesian statistics and experimental design as tools to scope testing and analyze data related to defense has increased in recent years. Planning a test using experimental design will allow testers to cover the operational space while maximizing the information obtained from each run. Understanding which factors can affect a detector’s performance can influence military tactics, techniques and procedures, and improve a commander’s situational awareness when making decisions in an operational environment. This talk will explain how a D-optimal experimental design could be an option for planning a test when the number of runs is limited but an adequate test is desired. Additionally, it will describe how the results of a Bayesian multiple logistic model could be used to show in what way the operational environment can affect the detector’s performance.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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