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Activity Number: 181 - SPEED: Statistical Learning and Data Science Speed Session 1, Part 2
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 29, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Learning and Data Science
Abstract #307529
Title: Cross-Validation for Correlated Data
Author(s): Assaf Rabinowicz* and Saharon Rosset
Companies: Tel-Aviv University and Tel Aviv University
Keywords: Cross-validation; Latent variables; Linear mixed model; Generalized least squares; Kriging

K-fold cross-validation (CV) with squared error loss is widely used for evaluating predictive models, especially when strong distributional data assumptions cannot be taken. However, CV with squared error loss is not free from distributional assumptions, especially in cases involving non-i.i.d data. This project analyzes CV for correlated data. We present a criterion for suitability of CV, and introduce a bias corrected cross-validation prediction error estimator, CVc, which is suitable in many settings involving correlated data, where CV is invalid. Our theoretical results are also demonstrated numerically.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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