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Activity Number: 88 - SPEED: Causal Inference and Related Methodology Part 2
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 28, 2019 : 5:05 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #307504
Title: Multivariate One-Sided Testing in Matched Observational Studies as an Adversarial Game
Author(s): Peter Lucas Cohen* and Matt A. Olson and Colin B. Fogarty
Companies: Massachusetts Institute of Technology and The Voleon Group and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Keywords: Coherence; Chi-bar-squared distribution; Sensitivity analysis; Convex programming

We present a multivariate one-sided sensitivity analysis for matched observational studies, appropriate when the researcher has specified that a given causal mechanism should manifest itself in effects on multiple outcome variables in a known direction. The test statistic can be thought of as the solution to an adversarial game, where the researcher determines the best linear combination of test statistics to combat nature's presentation of the worst-case pattern of hidden bias. The corresponding optimization problem is convex, and can be solved efficiently even for reasonably sized observational studies. Asymptotically the test statistic converges to a chi-bar-squared distribution under the null, a common distribution in order restricted statistical inference. The test attains the largest possible design sensitivity over a class of coherent test statistics, and facilitates one-sided sensitivity analyses for individual outcome variables while maintaining familywise error control through is incorporation into closed testing procedures.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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