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Activity Number: 68 - Advancements in Seasonality Modeling in the Era of Complex Data
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 28, 2019 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #307288 Presentation
Title: Seasonality Highlights Trends and Conditions Associated with Shellfish-Borne Vibrio Parahaemolyticus
Author(s): Meghan Hartwick* and Stephen Jones
Companies: UNH and UNH
Keywords: Vibrio; Forecasting; Ecology; Time Series; Seasonality; Shellfish

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is the leading cause of seafood-borne gastroenteritis in the US. Within the past decade, disease outbreak has become more frequent in seasonally warm, temperate coastal areas. This new dynamic is likely related to the introduction and establishment of invasive pathogenic strains, increased summertime shellfish production and consumption, and climate-related changes in ecosystem conditions. Long-term environmental monitoring of Vp has been integrated with multiple sources of continuous environmental data to quantify and evaluate these trends as potential drivers of changing Vp dynamics in the temperate Northeast, US. Complex ecological interactions and diurnal, seasonal and annually changing environmental conditions highlight the analytic challenges when developing effective predictive ecological models. To overcome these, a combination of environmental, seasonal and inter-annual time series analyses was used to develop a two-step method that identifies late summer trends in Vp that represent potentially elevated disease risk. This approach provides important progress toward effective forecasting for shellfish-borne Vp disease risk in the Northeast.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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