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Activity Number: 168 - SPEED: Environmental Statistics Methods and Applications, Part 1
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 29, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #307085 Presentation
Title: Temporal Effects Comparison Across Four Treatments Applied to Ponderosa Pine for the Suppression and Prevention of Elytroderma Needle Disease
Author(s): Ekaterina Smirnova* and Joel M Egan and Leonid Kalachev and John Goodburn and Kathleen Mckeever
Companies: Virginia Commonwealth University and US Forest Service and University of Montana and University of Montana and US Forest service
Keywords: forest protection; experimental design; pine beetle; elytroderma stem infections; treatment effects

Elytroderma causes a serious needle disease of pines in Western North America and is considered the most important needle disease of ponderosa pine in Montana. As a part of the US Forest service project, plots were established in 2004 and monitored every year for 10 years. Plots included control and 3 treatments combining the tree spacings, thinning and pruning methods. The goal of the study was to establish how the treatments had affected elytroderma status change between the baseline and the end of the monitoring period. We discuss the practical limitations of the study design and their implications on quantifying the Elytroderma disease development in ponderosa pines as well as the implications on statistical analysis. One particular challenge arising in comparison of treatment effects includes the difference in severity of elytroderma disease across plots at the baseline. We suggest an approach that estimates elytroderma risks for each tree, followed by testing of treatment effects based on the differences in estimated risks. The results of the study are important for validating the management recommendations on thinning and pruning of the ponderosa pine stands.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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