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Activity Number:
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258
- Contributed Poster Presentations:Section on Statistics in Sports
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 29, 2019 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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Abstract #306976
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Title:
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A Bayesian Approach to Ranking College Football Teams
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Author(s):
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Cassandra Hiltenbrand* and Keying Ye and Jerome Keating
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Companies:
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University of Texas at San Antonio and University of Texas at San Antonio and The University of Texas at San Antonio
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Keywords:
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Sports Statistics;
Bayesian;
Ranking;
Reference Prior
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Abstract:
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How to appropriatly rank NCAA Division I-A football teams has been a controversal question even long before the creation of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) or the College Football Playoffs (CFP). Today there exists many approaches to this ranking problem, each with a variety of numerical and subjective assessments. However, without an outright round-robin tournament, many methods and their projections remain partially biased. Using complete NCAA regular season data from 2010 to 2018, we explore several extensions of Harville's (2003) method to compare teams with an addition of objective and reference priors. We assess the predictive efficiency of our model and compare its performance to several of the current leading methods.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
