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Abstract:
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Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, while in Chile it is the second. Chile has one of the highest prevalence of tobacco smoking; in addition, between 1958 and 1970, the northern Region of Antofagasta suffered arsenic contamination of drinking water. We have studied lung cancer mortality using methods to access differences by space, time and space-time interactions. Differences from space have been accessed using BYM models on standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in Chilean counties. As a tendency description, we have used joinpoint regression on standardized mortality rates. Finally, autoregressive spatiotemporal models were used in SMR among Chilean counties. The results show that Antofagasta and Metropolitan counties have a greater risk than other regions. Men have a downward trend from 1990 and women have a negative slope change since 2013. Finally, from spatiotemporal analysis, we can see that Antofagasta most contributes to the negative slope observed in men, while a positive slope is seen in wealthy Metropolitan counties. In women, a positive slope is seen in the north and Metropolitan counties. In the future, we expect to use age-period-cohort models.
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