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Activity Number: 68 - Advancements in Seasonality Modeling in the Era of Complex Data
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 28, 2019 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #305123 Presentation
Title: Harmonization of Global and Local Calendars: What, When and Where?
Author(s): Elena N Naumova*
Companies: Tufts University
Keywords: seasonality; calendar effects; surveillance systems; statistical methodology; temporal cooccurance; seasonal drivers

Drivers that govern seasonal patterns of social behaviors and diseases continue to attract the attention of researchers and practitioners. Despite methodology development efforts, ways to measure and quantify seasonality are not yet standardized to the level that allows maximizing their conceptual potential. An understanding of seasonality starts with the description of features and seasonal characteristics with respect to local and global calendars and identification of generic covariates. This step is needed to anchor seasonal characteristics in a local and global context to provide a foundation for meaningful comparison of seasonal patterns. The insight into seasonality then progresses into ways to distinguish random cooccurrences from reasonable associations. We provide a historical perspective on statistical methods to assess seasonal patterns, outline how those methods are adapted to modern surveillance of notifiable infections and illustrate the variability of calendar effects for selected health outcomes. While the majority of epidemiological studies are based on the Gregorian calendar, local calendars might be useful for detecting drivers governing disease seasonality.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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