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Activity Number: 168 - SPEED: Environmental Statistics Methods and Applications, Part 1
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 29, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #304609
Title: Yield Forecasting Based on Short Time Series with High Spatial Resolution Data
Author(s): Sayli Pokal* and Yuzhen Zhou and Trenton Franz
Companies: University of Nebraska-Lincoln and University of Nebraska Lincoln and University of Nebraska Lincoln
Keywords: Spatial; Forecasting; Short time series; Clustering

Crop yield forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of fields. Precision agriculture had a market cap of $1.2B in North America in 2016 and is expected to grow to $2.2B by 2022. Forecasting yield becomes especially challenging when we have a short time series. In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting yield based on datasets which have a few points in time but have a large number of points in space (10 m spatial resolution in 800 x 800 m domain). Different type of models exists to forecast yield at the state level and county level, but not a lot of models estimate yield at a farm level. In this paper, we develop a two-stage model to forecast yields at a farm level. In the first stage, we use clustering algorithms to form clusters based on commonly available geophysical variables. In the second stage, we apply a spatially varying auto-regressive model and obtain yield forecasts. We compare the forecasting performance of our model with the traditional time series model and a few machine learning algorithms. The results show that for short time series with high spatial resolution data, our proposed model outperforms other models.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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