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Activity Number: 160 - Editor's Choice: Papers Published in the American Statistician During 2018
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 29, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract #301830 Presentation
Title: A Bayesian Survival Analysis of a Historical Dataset: How Long Do Popes Live?
Author(s): Luciana Dalla Valle* and Julian Stander and Mario Cortina-Borja
Companies: University of Plymouth and University of Plymouth and UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
Keywords: Censoring; JAGS; Lexis diagram; Posterior predictive distribution; Frequentist survival analysis; Weibull residuals

University courses in statistical modeling often place great emphasis on methodological theory, illustrating it only briefly by means of limited and repeatedly used standard examples. Unfortunately, this approach often fails to actively engage and motivate students in their learning process. The teaching of statistical topics such as Bayesian survival analysis can be enhanced by focusing on innovative applications. In this presentation, we discuss the visualization and modeling of a dataset of historical events comprising the post-election survival times of popes. Inference, prediction, and model checking are performed in the Bayesian framework, with comparisons being made with the frequentist approach. Further opportunities for similar statistical investigations are outlined.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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