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Activity Number: 276 - Statistical Methods for Improving Inferences and Decision-Making in Population Health
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 30, 2019 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract #300590
Title: Robust Decisions from Modeled Estimators
Author(s): Jishnu Das and Roy Van der Weide and Tyler McCormick*
Companies: The World Bank and The World Bank and University of Washington
Keywords:
Abstract:

Despite recent advances in methods and technology, collecting data on population health and inequality remains financially and logistically taxing, particularly in low and lower-middle income countries. In such settings, policymakers in areas with sparse data rely on estimates produced using models that extrapolate trends from other regions or time periods. This talk introduces a framework for decision-making that incorporates uncertainty about the quality of these extrapolations. Drawing on work in economics, we use a utility function with ambiguity aversion, a preference for known risks. Using this setup, we construct interpretable decision-rules in several common policy settings. We demonstrate our approach in the context of a decision about resource allocation based on healthcare facilities in India.


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