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Activity Number: 276 - Statistical Methods for Improving Inferences and Decision-Making in Population Health
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 30, 2019 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract #300590
Title: Robust Decisions from Modeled Estimators
Author(s): Jishnu Das and Roy Van der Weide and Tyler McCormick*
Companies: The World Bank and The World Bank and University of Washington

Despite recent advances in methods and technology, collecting data on population health and inequality remains financially and logistically taxing, particularly in low and lower-middle income countries. In such settings, policymakers in areas with sparse data rely on estimates produced using models that extrapolate trends from other regions or time periods. This talk introduces a framework for decision-making that incorporates uncertainty about the quality of these extrapolations. Drawing on work in economics, we use a utility function with ambiguity aversion, a preference for known risks. Using this setup, we construct interpretable decision-rules in several common policy settings. We demonstrate our approach in the context of a decision about resource allocation based on healthcare facilities in India.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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