Computer Experiments with Binary Time Series and Applications to Cell Biology: Modeling, Estimation and Calibration

• Activity Number: 317 - Uncertainty Quantification in Various Applications
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Tuesday, July 30, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy
• Author(s): C F Jeff Wu* and Ying Hung
• Companies: Georgia Inst of Technology and Rutgers University
• Keywords: binary time series; calibration; computer experiments

Abstract

Computer experiments have become ubiquitous in various applications from rocket injector designs to weather forecasting. In spite of the extensive research literature, computer experiments with binary time-series outputs have received scant attention. Motivated by the analysis of a class of cell adhesion experiments, we introduce a new emulator as well as a new calibration framework for binary time-series outputs. We provide their theoretical properties to ensure the estimation performance in an asymptotic setting. The application to the cell adhesion experiments illustrates that the proposed emulator and calibration framework can not only provide an efficient alternative for the computer simulation, but also reveal important insight on the underlying adhesion mechanism, which cannot be directly observed through existing methods. (joint work with C. Sung and Ying Hung.)