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Activity Number: 317 - Uncertainty Quantification in Various Applications
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 30, 2019 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy
Abstract #300497 Presentation
Title: Uncertainty Quantification in Assessing the Hazard from Pyroclastic Flows and Storm Surge
Author(s): James Berger*
Companies: Duke University
Keywords: Hazard probabilty; Pyroclastic flow; Storm surge; Computer model; Emulation

Risk assessment of rare natural hazards - such as pyroclastic flows or storm surge - is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. Thus an emulator – an approximation to the computer model – is developed that is capable of handling very large spatial domains and enables the computation of hazard probabilities.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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