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Activity Number: 199 - SPEED: Data Expo
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2018 : 11:35 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Computing
Abstract #333021
Title: Do I Need to Check the Weather Forecast, or Is Yesterday's Weather a Reasonable Prediction?
Author(s): Rachel Harter* and Kayla Nowak and Nicole Mack
Companies: RTI International and RTI International and RTI International
Keywords: Data Expo 2018

During years of commuting in a large metropolitan area, one of the authors noticed that some commuters seem to dress for yesterday's weather, totally ignoring the prediction for significant changes today. How well does the strategy of dressing for yesterday's weather work in practice? That is, how well does yesterday's weather predict today's weather compared to the official forecast? Does it matter whether the city has relatively stable weather or notoriously capricious weather? In these graphics we explore the accuracy of the official forecast and the previous day's weather as a forecast using measures including daily high and low temperatures and the presence of precipitation, arguably the weather factors that most influence one's choice of wardrobe.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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