Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 435 - SPEED: Sports to Fire: Fascinating Applications of Statistics
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 : 3:05 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: SSC
Abstract #332855
Title: Distributions of Time to First Spot Fire
Author(s): Trevor Thomson*
Companies: Simon Fraser University
Keywords: Firebrand; Mixture distribution; Poisson process; Simulation; Wildfire modelling

In wildfire management, a spot fire is the result of an airborne ember igniting a separate fire away from the main wildfire. Under certain environmental and wildfire conditions, a burning ember can breach a fuel break, such as a river or road, and result in the production of a spot fire. By utilizing information related to the wildfire, we model the generation of embers, and derive probability distributions of the time to the first spot fire occurring across a fuel break. A wildfire simulator is developed, and we present procedures that can aid fire managers in practice. This is joint work with John Braun (UBC-O) and Joan Hu (SFU).

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2018 program