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Activity Number: 368 - SPEED: Statistics for Biopharmaceutical Studies
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 : 11:35 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract #332744
Title: Probabilistic Modeling of Sleep and Awake States in Alzheimer's Disease
Author(s): Cici Bauer* and Charmaine Demanuele and Dmitri Volfson
Companies: Pfizer, Inc and Pfizer, Inc. and Pfizer
Keywords: Probabilistic Modeling; sleep-awake disturbance

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a devastating neurodegenerative disorder resulting in severe impairments in memory, cognition and behavior. Sleep-wake disturbances characterized by increased sleep fragmentation and excessive daytime sleepiness are highly prevalent in AD patients. We present a modeling framework to characterize the temporal dynamics and properties of sleep and awake states based on actigraphy data. We consider measured activity as a stochastic signal described by a continuous time Markov process, formulate the corresponding Chapman-Kolmogorov equation, and find a closed form stationary solution. We use publicly available data to verify that our model provides an adequate fit to the observed activity, and formulate a longitudinal model describing the temporal evolution of transitions across activity levels. We apply this framework to investigate activity patterns of AD patients and their demographically matched healthy controls. Our approach provides a data driven description of transitions between sleep and awake states, and serves to better characterize the mechanisms by which AD pathology disrupts sleep.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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