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Activity Number: 539 - SPEED: Bayesian Methods and Applications in the Life and Social Sciences
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2018 : 11:35 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #332686
Title: A Novel Bayesian PK/PD Model for Synergy: Challenges and Opportunities for Sequential Knowledge Integration
Author(s): Fabiola La Gamba* and Tom Jacobs and Helena Geys and Christel Faes
Companies: and Janssen R&D and Janssen R&D and Hasselt University
Keywords: Bayesian inference; Nonlinear Mixed Models; Pharmacodynamics; Pharmacokinetics; Sequential integration; Meta-analysis

Studies on pharmacodynamic interactions are usually performed in an in-vitro setting. In this work the co-administration of a novel molecule with a marketed treatment is studied through in-vivo studies performed sequentially. The body temperature change over time is expressed through a turnover model where a virtual pharmacokinetic profile of the marketed treatment drives the effect. A pharmacodynamic interaction is assumed at IC50. The aim of this work is to discuss the implications of performing the model in a Bayesian sequential manner, so that the posteriors resulting from a study are used to determine the priors of the next study. The assessed modelling aspects are: 1.Impact of prior elicitation; 2.Speci fication of random effect; 3.Impact of different Bayesian sequential integrations. The model worked well with informative priors, random baseline and when a wide dose range was investigated in each study. The integration of studies where one or few dose combinations were assessed produced biased results. This highlights the importance of a careful design of experiment for a successful sequential integration.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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