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Activity Number: 537 - SPEED: Infectious Disease, Environmental Epidemiology, and Diet
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2018 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #332643
Title: Estimating Efficacies of Supplementary Immunization Activities via Discrete Time Modeling of Disease Incidence Time Series
Author(s): Qi Dong* and Jon Wakefield and Kevin McCarthy and Niket Thakkar and Kurt Frey
Companies: University of Washington and Univ of Washington and Institute for Disease Modeling and Institute for Disease Modeling and Institute for Disease Modeling
Keywords: Efficacies of supplementary immunization activities; Disease incidence time series; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Under-reporting

Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are implemented worldwide to improve vaccination coverage and to prevent infectious disease outbreaks. The estimation of SIA efficacy, defined as the fraction of susceptible population reached by an immunization campaign, remains a critical programmatic challenge. We develop a stochastic discrete time susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to estimate SIA efficacies while accounting for under-reporting. We propose a two-stage estimation procedure to make inference about the unobserved infected and susceptible populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modeling time series of reported measles incidence although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. We investigate the performance of the model via simulations and apply the model to analyze the monthly reported measles incidence in Benin from 2011 to 2017, estimating the efficacies of two SIAs implemented during this time period.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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