Activity Number:
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35
- Statistics in Sports, Competitions, and the Arts
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, July 29, 2018 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistical Education
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Abstract #330787
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Presentation
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Title:
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A Ratio-Based Method for Predicting Point Differentials in Sports
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Author(s):
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Andrew Swift* and Andrew Tew
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Companies:
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University of Nebraska at Omaha and University of Nebraska at Omaha
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Keywords:
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Prediction;
Ratio;
Scoring
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Abstract:
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The application of statistical models has been used extensively to predict the outcomes of sporting competitions. However, for predicting point differential, the existence of a single model that is easily transferable across multiple sports is lacking. A primary reason exists because each sport can be defined by a unique set of characteristics. A characteristic that they all have in common though is that, for any given team, we can express their score as a fraction of the total score. We propose a family of models based on that idea which can be easily transferable from sport to sport. We demonstrate with data from various sports.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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