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Activity Number: 35 - Statistics in Sports, Competitions, and the Arts
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2018 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract #330787 Presentation
Title: A Ratio-Based Method for Predicting Point Differentials in Sports
Author(s): Andrew Swift* and Andrew Tew
Companies: University of Nebraska at Omaha and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Keywords: Prediction; Ratio; Scoring
Abstract:

The application of statistical models has been used extensively to predict the outcomes of sporting competitions. However, for predicting point differential, the existence of a single model that is easily transferable across multiple sports is lacking. A primary reason exists because each sport can be defined by a unique set of characteristics. A characteristic that they all have in common though is that, for any given team, we can express their score as a fraction of the total score. We propose a family of models based on that idea which can be easily transferable from sport to sport. We demonstrate with data from various sports.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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