Is Joe Flacco Elite? Hierarchical Models for Player Evaluation in Team Sports

• Activity Number: 200 - Section on Statistics in Sports Speaker with Lunch (Added Fee)
• Type: Roundtables
• Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2018 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Sam Ventura* and Ronald Yurko and Maksim Horowitz and Andrew C Thomas
• Companies: Pittsburgh Penguins and Carnegie Mellon University and Carnegie Mellon University and Minnesota Wild
• Keywords: hierarchical models; sports; football; hockey; WAR

Abstract

Hierarchical or multilevel models can play an important role in player evaluation in team sports. In American football, Yurko et al (2018) present a hierarchical model for estimating wins above replacement (WAR) for offensive skill positions, complete with a full treatment of uncertainty similar to that of Baumer et al (2015), but for football and using a drive-based resampling approach. In hockey, Thomas et al (2013) present a hierarchical competing process model for offensive and defensive player ratings. We discuss these two papers and their extensions, including how National Football League (NFL) teams can use this approach to calculate WAR for players of all positions, and how subsequent improvements can potentially be made in player evaluation and strategy at the NFL Draft. We present results on the 2017 NFL season and provide a definitive answer, once and for all, to the question: "Is Joe Flacco elite?"