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Abstract:
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The Framingham Heart Study (FHS) is an ongoing longitudinal study that began in 1948. Early examinations of the FHS are considered to be the last exams where the history of natural blood pressure levels were recorded. Since the introduction of effective blood pressure medications in the mid-1950s, there has been an increased use of these medications over time that has consequently affected the distribution of blood pressure in the population. The goal of this study is to examine the effect of anti-hypertensive medications on the distribution of blood pressure in the FHS throughout time. For each exam, censored lognormal samples were used to perform Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the distribution of blood pressure if anti-hypertensive medications were not available. The observed and estimated natural blood pressure distributions are then compared to determine the general longitudinal effect of blood pressure medications in the population. Trends in this FHS showed that anti-hypertensive medications have an increasing effect in controlling blood pressure levels in the population over time commensurate with the increasing use of these drugs.
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