In wildfire management, a spot fire is the result of an airborne ember igniting a separate fire away from the main wildfire. Under certain environmental and wildfire conditions, a burning ember can breach a fuel break, such as a river or road, and result in the production of a spot fire. By utilizing information related to the wildfire, we model the generation of embers, and derive probability distributions of the time to the first spot fire occurring across a fuel break. A wildfire simulator is developed, and we present procedures that can aid fire managers in practice. This is joint work with John Braun (UBC-O) and Joan Hu (SFU).