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Abstract:
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To forecast population growth and the changing demographic makeup of the United States, this paper presents new data and methods for US population projections 2020-2060. It focuses on 2030 as a demographic turning point. Beginning that decade, older adults are projected to outnumber children for the first time, while international migration is expected to overtake natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth, thanks to falling fertility rates and rising number of deaths among an aging population. To better estimate population aging, we project life tables by nativity and provide new data on mortality rates and projected gains to life expectancy by sex, race and nativity. Last, the paper discusses how hypothetical scenarios of international migration would affect the trajectory of population growth. How would a high migration forecast change the size of the working-age population or racial composition of the population, compared to a zero- or constant-level migration forecast? The projections offer insights for policymakers and researchers about potential demand for resources, especially in the context of an aging population.
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