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Activity Number: 343 - SPEED: Tests, Trials, Biomarkers, and Other Topics in Biometrics
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract #329390 Presentation
Title: Using Logistical Regression to Build a Better Diathesis Model of Dupuytren's Contracture Recurrence
Author(s): Brian Cohen*
Companies: ACI Clinical
Keywords: logistic regression; Model testing; Dupuytren's contracture

Heuston (1960) proposes a model where four subject-level characteristics are predictive of recurrence of Dupuytren's contracture, known as the diathesis model. Hindocha (2006) did a retrospective study testing Heuston's theory to predict recurrence of Dupuytren's contracture after fasciotomy surgery. The current research involves retesting Hindocha's findings after treatment with Xiaflex, a biological infection for Dupuytren's contractures. The current prospective research program offers several methodological advantages over Hindocha's retrospective study. Results show that the variables in the current research project provide a stronger prediction of recurrence than the same variables in the Hindocha study. Results also show that the combination of Hindocha's factors in the current study provides a better prediction of recurrence than Hindocha's results. Finally using logistic regression, five different factors were chosen that when they occur together predict recurrence over 80% of the time, a rate much higher than using Hindocha's factors. This new diathesis model of recurrence can aid clinicians in their prognosis of long-term success of Dupuytren's treatment.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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