A fission product yield (FPY) curve describes the distribution of fragment masses resulting from the fissioning of an an atomic nucleus. Using nuclear density functional theory (DFT), a model for the FPY curve can be obtained as a function of an underlying potential energy surface and a time differential equation. Given experimentally measured yield curves, the goal of this project is to compute the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters in this model. Since DFT models are expensive to evaluate, an emulator of the model is required for its efficient evaluation. We propose the use of Gaussian process based emulators for the FPY curves and calibrate the model parameters in a Bayesian framework that takes into account multiple sources of uncertainties in the model.
LLNL-ABS-745165 This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
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