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Abstract:
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In the NBA, there is a belief that catch & shoot jump shots are better than pull-up shots, with reasonable analytic evidence to back this claim. However, simply comparing these two types of shots does not account for potential confounding factors that might affect success, such as whether the shot was defended. Using a dataset of 50,000 shots from the 2014-2015 regular season from players with at least 100 shots we examined the EFG% of catch & shoot jump and pull-up shots controlling for openness of the show. Analysis shows that while catch & shoot shots have a higher EFG% than pull-up shots, the difference is mitigated by the defense. We further examine the actual causal effect of a catch & shoot shot on shots off the catch, controlling for distance, defender distance, openness, and the time left on the shot clock. We use this metric, rather than average causal effect of a catch & shoot, because most pull-up shots couldn't have been a catch & shoot, even if the player wanted them to be. We can see that not dribbling and possessing the ball for less than 2 seconds (catch & shoot definition) does have a significant effect on FG%. The effect size is small but positive.
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