Prejudice, Priming, and Presidential Voting: Panel Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Election

• Activity Number: 305 - Late-Breaking Session II: Hindsight is 20/20 and for 2020: Lessons from 2016 Elections
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 1, 2017 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: JSM Partner Societies
• Author(s): Daniel Hopkins*
• Companies: University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

Divisions between white and black Americans have long influenced voting behavior. Yet America's growing Latino population may reshape inter-group politics. Will Whites' attitudes toward Blacks continue to correlate with their voting decisions? Might anti-Latino prejudice join or even supplant them? These questions took on newfound importance after the 2016 campaign, in which the Republican candidate's rhetoric at times targeted immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere. Here, we examine the relationship between Whites' prejudice toward Blacks and Latinos and their voting behavior using a population-based panel survey conducted between 2007 and 2016. The 2016 campaign activated anti-Black prejudice but not anti-Latino prejudice. This and other evidence suggests that Whites' prejudice against Blacks is potentially primed even when salient political rhetoric does not target them exclusively. These results shed light on the continued political impact of anti-Black prejudice while deepening our understanding of racial priming and the mobilization of prejudice.