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Activity Number:
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253
- SPEED: Government Statistics, Health Policy, and Marketing
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 31, 2017 : 3:05 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Marketing
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Abstract #325228
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Title:
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AARP 2016 Master Model Building and Validation
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Author(s):
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Renting Xu* and Jared Weiss and Paul Maiste and Jerrod Begora and Roger Marcus
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Companies:
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AARP and AARP, Inc and Lityx,LLC and Lityx,LLC and Lityx,LLC
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Keywords:
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AARP Member Opinion Survey ;
50 Master Models ;
Factor Analysis ;
Scores ;
Logistic Regression ;
Campaign Selection
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Abstract:
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AARP's Member Opinion Survey (MOS) obtains information on members' experience,attitudes,and situation in life. The most recent version was sent out to a random sample in May 2016 and yielded 20,000 responses. These responses are used to build the Masters models, a suite of fifty models predicting members' preferences, aligning with specific groupings of questions from the MOS. The first step to build a Masters model is factor analysis which turns a group of questions into multiple factors. Each MOS respondent then receives a score loaded from factors. Based on the distribution of the scores, a cutoff point is defined for each model. Individuals whose scores above the cutoff point are considered to be positive responders. The second step is modeling. A logistic regression model is applied to predict the likelihood of a positive response, with variables including demographic, census data, contact history, and past activities. Validation showed all 50 models brought a significant lift comparing to random performance. Campaign managers therefore can select the most responsive prospects with the model applied to the entire 30 million members to save a significant budget.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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