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Abstract:
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We estimate an age-structured population model for bald eagles accounting for limitations on the number of available nest sites. The estimation uses a Bayesian hierarchical framework. The population is separated into juveniles, sub-adults, and breeding and non-breeding (floaters) adults. Counts from 1971 to 2015 are only available for fledglings and breeding adults. Latent variables are used to account for sub-adults and floaters. Banding and re-sight data are available for the same period. Variations of the model will test for variation of fecundity over time and survival over time and age class. The transition between breeders and floaters will be modeled by two variations of the Moffat model, and a transition parameter that is not affected by the number of nests sites will be used as a control. The counts show a consistently increasing trend while the banding data show a declining trend. The integrated population model shows one way to reconcile these two sources of information.
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