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Abstract:
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A major winter storm had brought up to 36 inches of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States for January 22-24, 2016. The 2016 blizzard impacted about 102.8 million people, with at least 55 people died due to the snowstorm, and caused economic losses in a range of $500 million and $3 billion. This paper studies two important aspects of extreme snow events: maximum snowfall and maximum snow depth. We apply extreme value methods to extreme snowfall and snow depth data to understand how much was the winter storm likely in terms of return levels. We find that 87.5-th percentile snowfall and 75-th percentile snow depth have increased by 0.564 inches and 0.559 inches per decade, respectively, whereas the annual maximum snowfall and snow depth series show insignificant increases. Our analysis shows that the 2016 blizzard is indeed an extreme snow event equivalent to about a 30-year return level in the New York City area. Our methods are thoroughly illustrated with details and expressions for practitioners.
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