An Analysis of Consumer Budgeting and the Great Recession

• Activity Number: 118 - SPEED: Data Challenge
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, July 31, 2017 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
• Author(s): Robert Garrett* and Thomas Fisher and Ritu Narahari
• Companies: Miami University - Oxford, OH and Miami University and Miami University
• Keywords: Data Challenge 2017 ; Consumer Expenditures ; Predictive Model ; Great Recession

Abstract

The Great Recession (2007-2009) created a well-established decline in the U.S. economy. This impact is typically measured with broad summative values, such as Gross Domestic Product and the national unemployment rate. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure data provides a more focused look into the demographics, financial situations and expenditures of U.S. Citizens. We aim to study the effects of the Great Recession on individual economic behavior. First, we visualize notable changes in consumer habits before and after the recession and compare the results to Macroeconomic trends. We then analyze the budgeting habits of US Consumer Units to identify useful information for modeling. Finally, we utilize the CE data to build a predictive model to estimate the continued effects of the Recession on Consumer Units.