Online Program Home
  My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 162 - SPEED: Government Statistics, Health Policy, and Marketing
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 31, 2017 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Marketing
Abstract #323755 View Presentation
Title: AARP 2016 Master Model Building and Validation
Author(s): Renting Xu* and Jared Weiss and Paul Maiste and Jerrod Begora and Roger Marcus
Companies: AARP and AARP, Inc and Lityx,LLC and Lityx,LLC and Lityx,LLC
Keywords: AARP Member Opinion Survey ; 50 Master Models ; Factor Analysis ; Scores ; Logistic Regression ; Campaign Selection
Abstract:

AARP's Member Opinion Survey (MOS) obtains information on members' experience,attitudes,and situation in life. The most recent version was sent out to a random sample in May 2016 and yielded 20,000 responses. These responses are used to build the Masters models, a suite of fifty models predicting members' preferences, aligning with specific groupings of questions from the MOS. The first step to build a Masters model is factor analysis which turns a group of questions into multiple factors. Each MOS respondent then receives a score loaded from factors. Based on the distribution of the scores, a cutoff point is defined for each model. Individuals whose scores above the cutoff point are considered to be positive responders. The second step is modeling. A logistic regression model is applied to predict the likelihood of a positive response, with variables including demographic, census data, contact history, and past activities. Validation showed all 50 models brought a significant lift comparing to random performance. Campaign managers therefore can select the most responsive prospects with the model applied to the entire 30 million members to save a significant budget.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2017 program

 
 
Copyright © American Statistical Association