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Activity Number: 282 - New Developments in Small Area Estimation Research at the U.S. Census Bureau
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 1, 2017 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
Abstract #323734 View Presentation
Title: Small Area Model Diagnostics and Validation with Applications to the Voting Rights Act Section 203
Author(s): Robert Ashmead* and Eric Slud
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau/University of Maryland College Park
Keywords: Small Area Estimation ; Model Diagnostics ; Parametric Bootstrap
Abstract:

We consider the dual problems of choosing between competing small area models and validating model assumptions in an area-level model. Many classes of small area models result in an estimate that is a convex combination of the direct and the marginal estimate for a given area. Therefore, competing models may share the same direct estimates, but give different marginal estimates as well as relative weight on the estimates. We discuss diagnostics to choose between competing models and parametric bootstrap methods to check for model validity and goodness of fit. We use the example of small area models related to the Voting Rights Act Section 203(b), which are used to estimate the number of limited English proficient and illiterate persons in certain language minority groups within jurisdictions using 5-year data from the American Community Survey.


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