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Activity Number: 392 - What Do the Experts Believe? Leveraging Expert Knowledge to Develop Robust Informative Prior Belief Distributions to Aid Decision Making in Drug and Medical Device Development
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 1, 2017 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #323683
Title: What Do the Experts Believe? Translating Expert Knowledge and Judgment into a Quantitative Belief Distribution
Author(s): Timothy H Montague*
Companies: GlaxoSmithKline
Keywords: Prior Elicitation ; Bayesian
Abstract:

Since 2014, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has been using formal prior elicitation methods to support internal decision making and analysis in drug development. Prior elicitation is used to enable quantification of existing knowledge about an asset in the absence of directly relevant data. In this talk, I will provide a brief introduction to the methods that GSK have been using for prior elicitation, and discuss some of the benefits and challenges of conducting prior elicitations. I will also gives some examples of how resulting quantitative belief distribution (or elicited prior) can be utilized.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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