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Activity Number: 666 - Prediction and Calibration
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 3, 2017 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #323656 View Presentation
Title: Piecewise Mixed Effects Model to Detect Event Associated Changes in Health Trajectories: Pre- and Post-Acute-Bronchitis Growth Trajectories in Children Ages 0-5 Years
Author(s): Md Hossain* and H Tim Bunnell and Thomas H Shaffer
Companies: Nemours Biomedical Research, A.I. DuPont Children's Hospital and Nemours and Nemours
Keywords: Piecewise ; mixed effects model ; knot ; acute-bronchitis ; accerated weight gain ; pre and post bronchitis
Abstract:

Many pathologic deviations have shown an interactive relationship with childhood obesity. Onset of these conditions usually diverts typical growth trajectories and leads to obesity with accelerated weight gain patterns. In a retrospective follow-up of 500 children aged 0-5 years, we used a piecewise linear mixed effects model with a knot at the age of the first diagnosis of airway inflammation to detect a post-acute-bronchitis accelerated weight gain pattern. The pre- and post- bronchitis yearly rates (SE) of change in BMIz, a standardized score of weight-for-length (age < 2 years) and BMI (>= 2 years), were 0.03(0.02) and 0.15(0.02), respectively, with a difference of 0.12(0.03). There were substantial variations in individual-level BMIz trajectories in pre- and post-diagnosis segments. About 53% children showed an increase in BMIz before diagnosis, and 67% showed an increase after diagnosis. Post-diagnosis increase in BMIz was greater in girls (0.18[0.04]) than in boys (difference: 0.11[0.06]). All races showed an increase; the lowest was in Caucasians, 0.11(0.03), and the highest was in Hispanics, 0.25(0.08). Bronchitis or treatment modalities may impact on post-diagnosis BMIz.


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