|
Abstract:
|
This paper considers the problem of determining optimal substitution times in soccer. We review the substitution rule proposed by Myers (2012) in his recent JQAS paper and provide a discussion of the results. An alternative analysis is then presented that is based on Bayesian logistic regression. We find that with evenly matched teams, there is a goal scoring advantage to the trailing team during the second half of a match. In addition, we provide a different perspective with respect to the substitution guidelines advocated by Myers. Specifically, we observe that there is no discernible time during the second half when there is a benefit due to substitution.
|
