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Abstract:
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Recent disease crises such as Zika and Ebola virus outbreaks show the significant threat posed by emerging infectious diseases to global health. When attempting to control disease outbreaks, identifying the initial conditions, such as the location and time of introduction, is critical to containing the incident and preventing future outbreaks. We propose a dynamic approach to model the initial stages of disease outbreak that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal process. Using a hierarchical modeling approach, we specify a latent inhomogeneous point process that accounts for novel introductions. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model. Using a case study, we apply our model to understand spatial risk factors associated with the location of disease introduction.
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