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Abstract:
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I will present the statistical problem of reconstructing aspects of past climate based on data from proxies: ice, pollen, and tree rings. There are now numerous data sources to assist with such reconstructions, which all present their own advantages and issues. Whilst my group have developed one particular approach, based on Bayesian inversion of causal models of the climate-data relationship, we have currently only applied it to individual proxies and individual sites. Our approach contrasts with much of traditional palaeoclimate reconstruction. In particular I will focus on the issues concerning the creation of forward causal models which allow for far richer modelling of the data generating process.
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