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Activity Number: 244
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #320548
Title: Spatio-temporal modeling for regional climate model comparison: application on perennial bioenergy crop impacts
Author(s): Meng Wang* and Yiannis Kamarianakis and Alex Mahalov and Melissa Wagner and Matei Georgescu and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho and Mohamed Moustaoui
Companies: Arizona State University and Arizona State University and Arizona State University and Arizona State University and Arizona State University and Universidade de Santiago de Compostela and Arizona State University
Keywords: Bayesian ; spatio-temporal ; regional climate models ; biofuel
Abstract:

This article presents spatio-temporal Bayesian models for analyzing regional climate model outputs. WRF simulated temperatures associated with control simulation bias, as well as biofuel impacts, were modeled using three spatio-temporal correlation structures. A hierarchical model with spatially varying intercepts and slopes displayed satisfactory performance in capturing spatio-temporal associations. The effects of microphysics parameterizations in reproducing near-surface climatic conditions were found statistically significant. Simulated temperature impacts due to perennial bioenergy crop expansion were robust to physics parameterization schemes.


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