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Activity Number: 135
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #320523
Title: A Ratio-Based Method for Predicting Point Differentials in Sports
Author(s): Andrew Swift* and Andrew Tew
Companies: University of Nebraska - Omaha and University of Nebraska - Omaha
Keywords: Sports ; Prediction ; Bayesian ; Score Differential
Abstract:

The application of statistical models has been used extensively to predict the outcomes of sporting competitions. However, for predicting point differential, the existence of a single model that is easily transferable across multiple sports is lacking. A primary reason exists because each sport can be defined by a unique set of characteristics. A characteristic that they all have in common though is that, for any given team, we can express their score as a fraction of the total score. We propose a family of Bayesian models based on that idea which can be easily transferable from sport to sport. Model will be demonstrated using various sports.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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