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The inference of source and quantification of the probative value of forensic evidence is a function of the type of evidence and of the analytical technique used to characterize it. In particular, many materials can only be characterized by using multiple, often expensive, analytical means. Assigning probability distributions to this heterogeneous data proves to be very complex.
Instead of looking at the evidence itself we look at very small particles (VSP) that attach to any evidence material. VSPs are gathered in the environment the trace material has been in and hold information on that environment. Thus, they can help infer the source of the evidence material. Importantly, the analytical technique characterizing the VSP is independent of the evidence type, reducing costs and increasing generalizability of the approach.
We use VSPs recovered from carpet fibers and apply current developments in kernel-based methods to compositional data to quantify the evidence and infer its source. This method can be easily extended to any type of VSPs found on other types of forensic materials such as weapons, drug packaging, or IEDs.
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