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Activity Number: 184
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #319990 View Presentation
Title: Bayesian Analysis of Quantal Bioassay Experiments Incorporating Historical Controls via Bayes Factors
Author(s): Luis Leon Novelo* and Andrew Womack and Hongxiao Zhu and Xiaowei Wu
Companies: The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and Indiana University and Virginia Tech and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Keywords: Bioassay Experiment ; Bayes Factor ; Peddada Test ; Poly-K test ; Toxicity ; Tumor Rate

We address model based Bayesian inference in the analysis of data arising from bioassay experiments. In such experiments, increasing doses of a chemical substance are given to treatment groups (usually rats or mice) for a fixed period of time (usually 2 years). The goal of such an experiment is to determine whether increased dosage of the chemical is associated with increased probability of an adverse effect (usually presence of a adenoma or carcinoma). The data consists of dosage, survival time, and the occurrence of the adverse event for each unit in the study. To determine whether such relationship exists, we propose using Bayes factors to compare two probit models, the model that assumes increasing dose effects and the model that assumes no dose effect. These models account for the survival time of each unit through a Poly-k type correction. In order to increase statistical power, the proposed approach allows the incorporation of information from control groups from previous studies. The proposed method is able to handle data with few occurrences of the adverse event. The proposed method is compared with standard current procedures via simulation.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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