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Activity Number: 30
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2016 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract #319828 View Presentation
Title: Development of a Stochastic Model Using Setting the Clock Back to Zero (SCBZ) for Expected Time to Seroconversion Under Correlated Inter-Contact Times
Author(s): Kannan R* and Balasubramani G.K.
Companies: Annamalai University and University of Pittsburgh
Keywords: Stochastic Models ; Seroconversion ; Onset ; Truncation Point

The study of antigenic variation and diversity thresholds of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the time to seroconversion from time of infection are well known in the literature. The HIV affected subjects show severe damage to the immune system. The immune system undergoes frequent changes due to the influence of the factors which are external and internal to the human body. Several mathematical models have been developed and well documented in the study of HIV infection when an infected subject exceeds the diversity threshold. After a particular random truncation point, the diversity threshold undergoes a change in its parameter called the SCBZ property. In this paper we developed a stochastic model with an assumption that inter-contact time between successive contacts are correlated random variables and the distribution of diversity threshold follows the SCBZ property. We estimated the expected time to seroconversion and its variance within the proposed model using correlated inter-contact time and the diversity threshold. We evaluated the model's performance in estimation through simulated data. We also applied this method to an application data set.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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