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Activity Number: 252
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Genomics and Genetics
Abstract #319528
Title: Modeling Multiple Primary Cancers Over Time Using a Novel Familywise Likelihood Under the Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process
Author(s): Jialu Li* and Seung Jun Shin and Wenyi Wang
Companies: MD Anderson Cancer Center and Korea University and MD Anderson Cancer Center
Keywords: multiple primary cancers ; non-homogeneous Poisson process ; Li-Fraumeni syndrome ; Markov chain Monte Carlo ; familywise likelihood ; age-at-onset penetrance
Abstract:

A common phenomenon in cancer is that for the same individual, multiple sites may present primary cancer at different times in life. In Li-Fraumeni syndrome(LFS), a rare pediatric cancer syndrome, TP53 mutation carriers are known to have a higher probability of developing second primary cancer than the non-carriers. Modeling the development of multiple primary cancers is therefore desired for better clinical management of LFS. To this end, we have developed a non-homogeneous Poisson process model with multiplicative rate function in order to account for primary cancer events occurred over time. We constructed a novel familywise likelihood under the Poisson process, which allows for inclusion of all family history information even when the individual genotype is missing. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate model parameters, and derived age-at-onset penetrance for single and multiple primary cancers given mutation status, respectively. We applied our method to a pediatric sarcoma cohort collected at MD Anderson Cancer Center from 1944 to 1982. Our penetrance estimates are consistent with previous studies on LFS and reasonably predict future cancer risk.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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