Urban Heat Risk Mapping of Houston, Texas, Using Multiple Point Patterns

• Activity Number: 423
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2016 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Jacob Mortensen* and Matthew J. Heaton and Olga Wilhelmi
• Companies: Brigham Young University and Brigham Young University and National Center for Atmospheric Research
• Keywords: Poisson point process ; Risk mapping ; Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Abstract

Extreme heat, or persistently high temperatures in the form of heat waves, adversely impacts human health. To study such effects, risk maps are a common epidemiological tool used to identify regions and populations that are more susceptible to these negative outcomes; however, the negative health effects of high temperatures are manifested differently among different segments of the population. In this paper, we propose a novel, hierarchical marked point process model that merges multiple health outcomes into an overall heat risk map. Specifically, we consider health outcomes of heat stress-related 911 calls and mortalities across the city of Houston, Texas. We show that combining multiple health outcomes leads to a broader understanding of the spatial distribution of heat risk than a single health outcome.