Abstract:
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Chiang and Conforti (1989, Mathematical Biosciences, pp:1-29) used the birth and death processes to describe the remaining toxicants (RT) in human body and defined cancer incidence rate as a function of RT to build a model for time to cancer. We use their idea to build the distribution for time to dose-limiting-toxicity in phase I trials. The model is flexible to accommodate a single, sequential, or combinational use of different drugs. Continuous reassessment methods can be then developed under the model. We discuss the properties of our approaches via simulation studies.
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