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Activity Number: 16
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2016 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #318834
Title: A Decision-Theoretic Comparison of Treatments to Resolve Air Leaks After Lung Surgery Based on Nonparametric Modeling
Author(s): Yanxun Xu* and Peter F. Thall and Peter Mueller and Reza Mehran
Companies: and MD Anderson Cancer Center and The University of Texas at Austin and MD Anderson Cancer Center
Keywords: Bayesian nonparametric ; Clinical trial ; Mesothelioma ; Stochastic Ordering ; Utility function

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric utility-based group sequential design for a randomized clinical trial to compare a gel sealant to standard care for resolving air leaks after pulmonary resection. Clinically, resolving air leaks in the days soon after surgery is highly important, since longer resolution time produces undesirable complications that require extended hospitalization. The problem of comparing treatments is complicated by the fact that the resolution time distributions are skewed and multi-modal, so using means is misleading. We address these challenges by assuming Bayesian nonparametric probability models for the resolution time distributions and basing the comparative test on weighted means. The weights are elicited as clinical utilities of the resolution times. The proposed design uses posterior expected utilities as group sequential test criteria. The procedure's frequentist properties are studied by extensive simulation studies.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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