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Activity Number: 515
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2016 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract #318288
Title: A Robust SEIR Model for Epidemics on Unobserved Graphs
Author(s): Aaron T. Porter* and Grant Donald Brown
Companies: Colorado School of Mines and University of Iowa
Keywords: Bayesian ; empirical likelihood ; epidemic ; SEIR

Individual contact networks are rarely available concurrently with an epidemic. Using empirical likelihood methodology, we propose a robust method to analyze infectious disease spread over an unknown contact network within the SEIR framework. The method allows trivially parallelizable approximate Bayesian computation methods to be employed for model fitting, which, in turn, allows for up-to-the-day analyses of current epidemics. The model is tested via a new analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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