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Activity Number: 51
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2016 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
Abstract #318187
Title: Causal Inferences from Observational Studies: Fracking, Earthquakes, and Oklahoma
Author(s): Howard Wainer*
Companies: NBME
Keywords: Causal Inference ; Fracking ; Oklahoma earthquakes
Abstract:

The structure of a randomized, controlled experiment is ideally suited for the estimation of causal effects. But such experiments are not always practical, and when that is the case we are constrained to use an observational study, with intact groups, to estimate the size of the causal effect. When we do not have randomization to balance the treatment and control groups we must rely on some sort of post hoc matching to make the equivalence of the two groups credible. Results from observational studies must rely on evidence that is circumstantial, and the strength of such evidence is what determines how credible are your conclusions.

On November 11, 1854, Henry David Thoreau observed, "Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk." He was referring to an 1849 dairyman's strike in which some of the purveyors were suspected of watering down the product. Thoreau is especially relevant when we are faced with trying to estimate a causal effect, but do not have easily available the possibility of doing a suitable experiment, and so are constrained to using available data for an observational study.

This talk deals with a single remarkable example, an


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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